David put in a load of washing, including the blooded jersey, immediately after returning from his paper run on the morning of the murders

Likelihood: 
0.1

David Bain's claim that he loaded the washing immediately following his paper run on the morning of the murders is plausible because this is what he did every morning, however on this particular morning he was seen entering his home at 6.45 and, when the police arrived at 7.32 the wash cycle had finished.  Since the cycle normally more than 50 minutes to complete it should have still been running.  Because of this we give it a reasonably low probability of occuring.

The Prosecution scenario, that David Bain did part of his paper run, committed the murders and loaded his bloodied clothes into the washing machine before doing the remaining part of his run and ringing the police is more plausible with respect to this, and fits in with Mark Buckley's testimony that David had for a long time planned of committing some act while using his paper run as an alibi.

Comments

error in time

Kent, I think there is an error here.  If David came in at 7.45 am the police could not have got there at 7.30am

error in time

Yes,6.45 it was,of course,but that time is probably not correct.I have carried out a reconstruction which has Bain at the gate at around 6.42.30.I did speak to Denise Laney,the woman who saw Bain at the gate of 65 Every Street,she now says,without any prompting from me,that she saw Bain between 6.40 and 6.45.Her car clock was very unreliable.When she looked at it and it said 6.50 she thought it was about 5min fast,and she thought she was running late because she usually saw David Bain further down Every Street.She now has a "gut feeling"she was not late for work that day.As it would have taken her about one minute to get from 65 Every Street to work,allowing for her parking the car and walking to the door,this would mean she saw Bain at 6.44.Actually,I believe she saw Bain a minute or so earlier than this,ie around 6.42.30.As a matter of interest,she told me Karam had phoned her more than once,the last time he phoned he hung up on her.